Publication Date Feb 13, 1979 by Kaplan S., Garrick B.J.

Bayes' theorem is used to quantify the impact of "new evidence" in three energy-related decision problems. the first problem concerns the risk of radioactivity release during the railroad transport of spent nuclear fuel. this history of shipments thus far is shown to make it highly unlikely that the frequency of release is on the order of 103 or greater per shipment.