On the Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment

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Publication Date Sep 30, 1981 by Kaplan S.

If the point of view is adopted that in calculations of real-world phenomena we almost invariably have significant uncertainty in the numerical values of our parameters, then, in these calculations, numerical quantities should be replaced by probability distributions and mathematical operations between these quantities should be replaced by analogous operations between probability distributions.

Sep 30, 1981

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On the Use of a Bayesian Reasoning in Safety and Reliability Decisions - Three Examples

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Publication Date Feb 13, 1979 by Kaplan S., Garrick B.J.

Bayes' theorem is used to quantify the impact of "new evidence" in three energy-related decision problems. the first problem concerns the risk of radioactivity release during the railroad transport of spent nuclear fuel. this history of shipments thus far is shown to make it highly unlikely that the frequency of release is on the order of 103 or greater per shipment.

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