Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the ‘State of Knowledge’ About Uncertain Inputs

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Publication Date Feb 28, 1999 by Hoffman O., Kaplan S.

Uncertainty is inherent in all exposure and risk assessments in which mathematical models are used to extrapolate information beyond the domain of direct observation. Uncertainty exists because models are imperfect mimics of reality.

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Confronting the Risks of Terrorism: Making the Right Decisions

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Publication Date Nov 01, 2004 by Garrick B.J., Hall J.E., Kilger M., McDonald J.C., O'Toole T., Probst P.S., Parker E.R., Rosenthal R., Trivelpiece A.W., Van Arsdal L.A., Zebroski E.L.

The purpose of this report is to suggest a methodology for assessing the risk of catastrophic terrorist attacks, i.e., high consequence attacks that would result in significant loss of life and/or economic damage.

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