Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the ‘State of Knowledge’ About Uncertain Inputs

Publication Date Feb 28, 1999 by Hoffman O., Kaplan S.

Uncertainty is inherent in all exposure and risk assessments in which mathematical models are used to extrapolate information beyond the domain of direct observation. Uncertainty exists because models are imperfect mimics of reality.

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