On a Two-Stage Bayesian Procedure for Determining Failure Rates from Experiential Data

Publication Date Jan 31, 1983 by Kaplan S.

A process is described for analyzing failure data in which Bayes' theorem is used twice, firstly to develop a "prior" or "generic" probability distribution and secondly to specialize this distribution to the specific machine or system in question. The process is shown by examples to be workable in practice as well as simple and elegant in concept.

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Data Specialization for Plant Specific Risk Studies

Publication Date Feb 01, 1980 by Apostolakis G., Kaplan S., Garrick B.J., Duphily R.J.

Bayes' theorem is used to derive plant specific distributions for the failure rates of components. Methods are suggested for the derivation of generic distributions from information that appears in the literature.

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On the Use of a Bayesian Reasoning in Safety and Reliability Decisions - Three Examples

Publication Date Feb 13, 1979 by Kaplan S., Garrick B.J.

Bayes' theorem is used to quantify the impact of "new evidence" in three energy-related decision problems. the first problem concerns the risk of radioactivity release during the railroad transport of spent nuclear fuel. this history of shipments thus far is shown to make it highly unlikely that the frequency of release is on the order of 103 or greater per shipment.

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