January 22, 2015

Letter to the Editor, Combining Probability Distributions from Experts in Risk Analysis

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Apr 30, 2000 by Kaplan S.

In their well-researched and almost unbelievably comprehensive paper, Clemen and Winkler (1) give a summary of my "Expert Information" method originally published in 1992. (2) From this summary, and from rereading the original paper, I recognize that in that paper I failed to adequately communicate my idea, probably because the idea at that time was newly formed in my mind.

January 22, 2015

Beyond the Domain of Direct Observation: How to Specify a Probability Distribution that Represents the ‘State of Knowledge’ About Uncertain Inputs

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Feb 28, 1999 by Hoffman O., Kaplan S.

Uncertainty is inherent in all exposure and risk assessments in which mathematical models are used to extrapolate information beyond the domain of direct observation. Uncertainty exists because models are imperfect mimics of reality.

January 22, 2015

The Words of Risk Analysis

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Aug 31, 1997 by Kaplan S.

This paper is a transcript of a talk given to a plenary session at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis. Its purpose is to contribute toward a single, uniformly understood language for the risk analysis community.

January 22, 2015

On the Use of the Cause Table in Handling Common Cause Events in Systems Analysis

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Dec 31, 1987 by Kaplan S., Fleming K.N.

A method is presented for applying the cause table concept to the problem of common cause events.

January 22, 2015

An Improved Condensation Procedure in Discrete Probability Distribution Calculations

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Mar 31, 1987 by Kaplan S., Lin J.C.

A "vertical" condensation scheme for discrete probability distribution (DPD) calculations is presented as an alternative to the earlier "horizontal" scheme, an example of which was presented recently by Kurth and Cox. When applied to DPDs over a space of curves, the vertical condensation results in a "regularization" of the "spaghetti" of curves that results from combination operations on such DPDs.

January 22, 2015

On the Use of Data and Judgment in Probabilistic Risk and Safety Analysis

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date May 01, 1986 by Kaplan S.

This paper reviews the line of thought of a nuclear plant probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) identifying the points where data and judgment enter. At the "bottom" of the process, data and judgment are combined, using one and two stage Bayesian methods, to express what is known about the element of variables.

January 22, 2015

On a Two-Stage Bayesian Procedure for Determining Failure Rates from Experiential Data

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Jan 31, 1983 by Kaplan S.

A process is described for analyzing failure data in which Bayes' theorem is used twice, firstly to develop a "prior" or "generic" probability distribution and secondly to specialize this distribution to the specific machine or system in question. The process is shown by examples to be workable in practice as well as simple and elegant in concept.

January 22, 2015

Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear Risk Analysis

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Jan 31, 1983 by Kaplan S.

It is pointed out that the familiar analytical device of "event tree", widely used in risk analysis, can be viewed as a transition matrix expressing the likelihood of going from "entry states" to "exit states".

January 22, 2015

On the Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Sep 30, 1981 by Kaplan S.

If the point of view is adopted that in calculations of real-world phenomena we almost invariably have significant uncertainty in the numerical values of our parameters, then, in these calculations, numerical quantities should be replaced by probability distributions and mathematical operations between these quantities should be replaced by analogous operations between probability distributions.

Sep 30, 1981

January 22, 2015

Probabilistic Seismic Safety Study of an Existing Nuclear Power Plant

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Aug 01, 1980 by Kennedy R.P., Cornell C.A., Campbell R.D., Kaplan S., Perla H.F.

This study was conducted as part of an overall safety study of the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant.

January 22, 2015

Numerical Studies of the Partial Differential Equations Governing Nerve Impulse Conduction: The Effect of Lieberstein’s Inductance Term

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Aug 01, 1980 by Kennedy R.P., Cornell C.A., Campbell R.D., Kaplan S., Perla H.F.

The role of the inductance term in the equations for nerve impulse propagation is investigated by numerically solving these equations for various values of inductance. It is found that a full-fledged action potential develops for all values of inductance. The propagation velocity of the impulse is independent of inductance when the inductance is small. Larger values of inductance do affect the propagation velocity, but in no case is this velocity equal to that suggested by the linear wave operator portion of the governing equation.

January 22, 2015

The Inverse Problem of Radioisotope Diagnosis; A Computational Method for Determining the Location and Size of Tumors

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Aug 01, 1969 by Kaplan S., McNabb A., Trujillo D., Siemsen J.K.

An idea is presented for an approach to the problem of finding lesions through interpretation of radioisotope scan data. The approach proposed includes an experimental measurement of the appropriate Green's function and some mathematical tricks for solving the resulting inverse problem. The tricks are illustrated by numerical examples. Pitfalls in the approach are pointed out and devices for overcoming them discussed.

January 22, 2015

Canonical and Involutory Transformations of Variational Problems Involving Higher Derivatives

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date Apr 01, 1968 by Kaplan S.

An exposition has been given of the notions of canonical and involutory transformation in the context of variational problems involving second derivatives of the argument function. As a specific illustration the variational problem representing a beam on nonlinear-elastic foundation is discussed.

January 22, 2015

On the Use of Dual Variational Principles for the Estimation of Error in Approximate Solutions of Diffusion Problems

January 22, 2015/ Stan Kaplan

Publication Date May 01, 1967 by YaSinsky J.B., Kaplan S.

An exploration is made into a method for using reciprocal variational problems to develop figures of merit or approximate solutions of diffusion problems. The theory of the reolprocal problems Is described in both a continuous and discrete context.

January 22, 2015

Quantitative Risk Assessment of the New York State Operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area

January 22, 2015/ B. John Garrick

Publication Date Aug 01, 2010 by Garrick B.J., Stetkar J.W., Bembia P.J.

This paper is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State.

January 22, 2015

Confronting the Risks of Terrorism: Making the Right Decisions

January 22, 2015/ B. John Garrick

Publication Date Nov 01, 2004 by Garrick B.J., Hall J.E., Kilger M., McDonald J.C., O'Toole T., Probst P.S., Parker E.R., Rosenthal R., Trivelpiece A.W., Van Arsdal L.A., Zebroski E.L.

The purpose of this report is to suggest a methodology for assessing the risk of catastrophic terrorist attacks, i.e., high consequence attacks that would result in significant loss of life and/or economic damage.

January 22, 2015

A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High Level Radioactive Waste

January 22, 2015/ Guest User

Publication Date Garrick Jan 01, 1999 B.J., Kaplan S.

In this paper the problem of high level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem.

January 22, 2015

Lessons Learned from 21 Nuclear Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessments

January 22, 2015/ Guest User

Publication Date Aug 23, 1988 by Garrick B.J.

In the short time that plant-specific, full-scope probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been performed, extensive progress has been made in understanding and managing risk.

January 22, 2015

On the Quantitative Definition of Risk

January 22, 2015/ B. John Garrick

Publication Date Jan 01, 1981 by Kaplan S., Garrick B.J.

The purpose of this paper is to provide some suggestions and contributions toward a uniform conceptual/linguistic framework for quantifying and making precise the notion of risk.

January 22, 2015

Data Specialization for Plant Specific Risk Studies

January 22, 2015/ B. John Garrick

Publication Date Feb 01, 1980 by Apostolakis G., Kaplan S., Garrick B.J., Duphily R.J.

Bayes' theorem is used to derive plant specific distributions for the failure rates of components. Methods are suggested for the derivation of generic distributions from information that appears in the literature.

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