Natural Hazards Risk and Resiliency Research Center (NHR3)
Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative
Overview of New Models
A set of next-generation fault displacement models has been developed through the first phase of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative project. Collectively, the new models are anticipated to provide improved estimates of probabilistic and deterministic fault displacement hazard by using a comprehensive modern database, compatible displacement metrics and predictor variables, and sophisticated statistical modeling.
Published Models
The final versions of the models are published in the Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis Special Collection of Earthquake Spectra, available HERE.
• Lavrentiadis, Wang, Abrahamson, Bozorgnia, and Goulet, 2023 (Surface Rupture Length), https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231205871
• Lavrentiadis and Abrahamson, 2023 (Fault Displacement), https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930231201531
• Moss, Thompson, Kuo, Younesi, and Baumont, 2024 (Fault Displacement), https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241288560
• Kuehn, Kottke, Sarmiento, Madugo, and Bozorgnia, 2024 (Fault Displacement), https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241291077
• Chiou, Chen, Thomas, Milliner, Dawson, and Petersen, 2025 (Fault Displacement), https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930251337703
A comprehensive comparison of the new fault displacement models is also published in the Special Collection at https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930251327894.
Several of the models are also published as technical reports by the Natural Hazards Risk and Resiliency Research Center (NHR3). Click the links below to access each report for free. Please note that these reports have been updated since their original publication, and all end-users should ensure they are using current versions (i.e., downloaded on or after April 2025).
Click here to access a new surface rupture length model by Grigorios Lavrentiadis, Yongfei Wang, Norman Abrahamson, Yousef Bozorgnia, and Christine Goulet for all styles of faulting.
Click here to access a new fault displacement model by Robb Moss, Stephen Thompson, Chun-Hsiang Kuo, Kourosh Younesi, and Shu-Hsien Chao for reverse faulting events.
Click here to access a new fault displacement model by Nicolas Kuehn, Albert Kottke, Chris Madugo, Alexandra Sarmiento, and Yousef Bozorgnia for all styles of faulting.
Click here to access a comparison of the new fault displacement models by the Alexandra Sarmiento, Grigorios Lavrentiadis, and the FDHI Project Model Developers.
Computational Tools
The new models are implemented in a Python package and an Excel workbook. The calculations have been verified against independently computed results.
